Week 37, 2026 (September 7–September 13, 2026)

I. Weekly Market Overview

This week, the Drone-Grade Monopotassium Phosphate (MKP) market continued to operate on a weak footing. The release of rigid demand remained limited, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Quotations from major producers remained relatively stable, while the availability of lower-priced products increased.

On the cost side, sulfur prices had previously remained at relatively high levels, limiting downstream acceptance and weakening purchasing interest. The subsequent decline in prices led to weaker cost support for phosphoric acid.

On the demand side, autumn fertilizer stocking has gradually begun. However, the recovery of operating rates among compound fertilizer producers has been relatively slow, and end-user demand has yet to increase significantly. Downstream purchases continue to be mainly based on immediate needs.

Overall, the weak supply-and-demand fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, market prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a weak range.

II. Analysis of Key Raw Materials

1. Yellow Phosphorus Market: RMB 27,300–27,600/MT

As of September 6, Yellow Phosphorus prices had declined slightly.

On the supply side, production increased, while inventories continued to decline. On the demand side, downstream stocking ahead of the two upcoming holidays remained relatively scattered. Meanwhile, weakening prices strengthened buyers' pressure for lower prices.

On the cost side, coke prices continued to rise, resulting in a slight increase in Yellow Phosphorus production costs.

In the short term, the market is expected to remain in a supply-and-demand balance. Prices are likely to continue fluctuating within a weak range.

2. Solid Sulfur Market: RMB 7,550–7,750/MT

As of September 6, the sulfur market had stopped declining and rebounded, with prices at Yangtze River ports increasing compared with the previous week.

Renewed geopolitical tensions provided support for international sulfur prices and market sentiment, reducing suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices.

However, the recovery in operating rates among downstream phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer producers remained slow, and actual market transactions were limited.

In the short term, geopolitical factors are expected to continue providing support. However, weak demand may limit further price increases. The sulfur market is therefore expected to continue fluctuating within a range.

3. Phosphoric Acid Market

(1) Hot-process Phosphoric Acid: RMB 8,000–8,300/MT

As of September 6, the overall price level of Hot-process Phosphoric Acid had moved downward.

On the supply side, production increased slightly. On the demand side, market activity remained sluggish. Low-priced supplies of purified Wet-process Phosphoric Acid continued to put pressure on the market share of Hot-process Phosphoric Acid, while downstream purchasing interest remained weak.

On the cost side, the decline in Yellow Phosphorus prices reduced production costs for Hot-process Phosphoric Acid.

In the short term, with supply and demand fundamentals remaining weak, Hot-process Phosphoric Acid prices are expected to continue operating on a weak trend.

(2) Wet-process Phosphoric Acid: RMB 8,200–8,400/MT

As of September 6, Wet-process Phosphoric Acid prices remained generally stable, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.

On the supply side, newly added production capacity has gradually come online, resulting in increased output. Some newly launched supplies have been offered at relatively low prices.

On the demand side, downstream bearish sentiment persisted, resulting in weak inquiry activity and purchasing enthusiasm. Transactions for new orders remained limited.

In the short term, increasing supply combined with weak demand is expected to keep the Wet-process Phosphoric Acid market stable but slightly weak.

4. Potassium Raw Material Market

Potassium Chloride

As of September 6, the average market price of Potassium Chloride was RMB 3,121/MT, continuing its downward trend.

Port inventories stood at approximately 3.75 million MT, representing a year-on-year increase of 131%, indicating ample market supply.

Meanwhile, downstream compound fertilizer producers maintained high inventories of finished products and had sufficient raw material stocks. With the market continuing to weaken, purchases were mainly focused on consuming existing inventories, while new orders remained limited.

48% Potassium Hydroxide

As of September 6, the average market price of 48% Potassium Hydroxide was RMB 3,209/MT, remaining stable.

The industry's operating rate was approximately 56%, with overall supply remaining steady. Downstream demand was moderate, with traditional industries primarily purchasing based on immediate needs.

A lack of momentum for large-scale inventory replenishment kept overall market trading activity subdued.

III. Luobo Market Outlook

This week, raw material prices showed mixed movements, while overall cost-side support remained weak.

On the demand side, autumn fertilizer stocking has gradually begun. However, downstream purchases continue to be primarily driven by immediate needs, and market trading activity remains subdued.

Overall, the weak supply-and-demand structure has not changed. In the short term, prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a weak range.