Week 38, 2026 (September 14–September 20, 2026)

I. Weekly Market Overview

This week, the price level of Drone-Grade Monopotassium Phosphate (MKP) moved downward, with the market continuing to operate on a weak footing.

Supply remained sufficient, and inventories increased to some extent. Most producers offered price concessions to stimulate sales. Downstream buyers remained cautious, with purchasing mainly focused on small, demand-driven orders and strong pressure on prices.

On the cost side, the rebound in sulfur prices provided some support. However, the continued weakness in Yellow Phosphorus limited overall cost-side support.

Although autumn fertilizer stocking has continued to progress, end-user purchasing has yet to show a significant improvement.

Overall, prices across the phosphate chemical sector are gradually approaching a bottoming range and are now close to their lowest levels of the year. In the short term, the market is expected to remain weak.

II. Analysis of Key Raw Materials

1. Yellow Phosphorus Market: RMB 26,800–27,000/MT

As of September 13, Yellow Phosphorus prices continued to decline.

Industry operating rates remained high. To reduce inventories ahead of the upcoming holidays, some producers accelerated shipments and offered greater price concessions to secure orders.

Meanwhile, downstream phosphoric acid producers faced difficulties in securing orders, resulting in reduced purchasing demand and strong downward pressure on prices. Mainstream prices continued to move lower.

In the short term, as downstream pre-holiday stocking gradually approaches completion and follow-up orders remain limited, Yellow Phosphorus prices are expected to continue trending weakly.

2. Solid Sulfur Market: RMB 7,900–8,100/MT

As of September 13, sulfur prices rebounded.

Tighter overseas supply and persistently high USD-denominated prices provided bottom support to the domestic market. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions boosted market sentiment, with suppliers showing stronger resistance to price reductions and reduced willingness to sell.

However, downstream demand remained weak, with purchases mainly limited to small, demand-driven orders. Overall market transactions were limited.

In the short term, geopolitical factors are expected to continue supporting the market. However, weak demand may limit further upside. The sulfur market is therefore expected to remain range-bound.

3. Phosphoric Acid Market

(1) Hot-process Phosphoric Acid: RMB 7,800–8,200/MT

As of September 13, Hot-process Phosphoric Acid prices declined slightly.

The continued weakness in Yellow Phosphorus further reduced cost-side support. Meanwhile, Wet-process Phosphoric Acid maintained a stronger price advantage. In several regions, Hot-process Phosphoric Acid prices have exceeded those of Wet-process Phosphoric Acid, prompting downstream buyers to favor lower-priced alternatives and further squeezing demand for Hot-process material.

With producers facing sluggish shipments and rising inventories, some were forced to lower prices to stimulate orders.

In the short term, Hot-process Phosphoric Acid is expected to continue operating on a weak trend.

(2) Wet-process Phosphoric Acid: RMB 8,000–8,200/MT

As of September 13, Wet-process Phosphoric Acid prices declined slightly.

Lower sulfuric acid prices reduced production costs, prompting producers to offer price concessions to support shipments.

Meanwhile, the conflict between the United States and Iran and potential risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz increased international sulfur costs. In addition, tighter domestic supply policies for non-fertilizer shipments continued to provide some underlying market support.

However, competition between Wet-process and Hot-process Phosphoric Acid remained intense. Downstream buyers continued to exert strong pressure on prices, and transaction prices moved lower.

In the short term, the Wet-process Phosphoric Acid market is expected to remain stable but weak.

4. Potassium Raw Material Market

Potassium Chloride

As of September 13, the average market price of Potassium Chloride was RMB 3,118/MT, broadly unchanged from the previous week.

A national potash reserve meeting confirmed a target of completing 3 million MT of physical reserves by December, strengthening expectations of policy support. This improved traders' confidence in maintaining prices, with some suppliers testing modest price increases.

However, the overall loose supply-demand balance remained unchanged. Port inventories remained high, while downstream autumn fertilizer stocking progressed slowly. Transactions continued to be dominated by small, demand-driven orders, resulting in a market characterized by quoted prices but limited actual trading activity.

In the short term, the Potassium Chloride market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.

48% Liquid Potassium Hydroxide

As of September 13, the average market price of 48% Liquid Potassium Hydroxide was RMB 3,193/MT, representing a slight decline from the previous week.

On the supply side, most producers maintained stable operating rates. A major producer in East China suspended operations at its solid potassium hydroxide facility for maintenance, resulting in a slight tightening of supply. However, overall availability remained sufficient.

Downstream demand continued to be driven mainly by immediate needs from traditional industries, with little momentum for large-scale inventory replenishment. As a result, upward price momentum remained limited.

In the short term, the market is expected to remain weak but generally stable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range.

III. Luobo Market Outlook

This week, the Drone-Grade Monopotassium Phosphate (MKP) market continued to face pressure from the ongoing weakness in key raw materials, particularly Yellow Phosphorus and Phosphoric Acid, further reducing overall cost-side support.

However, sulfur prices have stabilized after rebounding, while Potassium Chloride has received support from national reserve policies. As a result, the room for further significant declines in raw material prices may be limited.

On the demand side, autumn fertilizer stocking continues to progress, but downstream purchasing remains dominated by small, demand-driven orders, with demand growth falling short of expectations.

Currently, phosphate chemical prices are already at relatively low levels for the year, and signs of market stabilization are gradually emerging. Although the market is expected to remain weak in the short term, the downside is likely to be limited.